AIMS

Roubelat Fabrice, Marchais-roubelat Anne
Incorporating stakeholders in motion in scenario design. Insights from defense extreme scenarios

While scenario literature suggests enhancing scenario analysis to incorporate stakeholders’ perspectives, this paper proposes to design scenarios as moving action processes from the anticipation of stakeholders’ acts over time. Discussing the growing interest in the concept of stakeholder in scenario literature, this paper will first stress the role of action in scenario design. In a second section, methodological proposals from defense extreme scenarios, including a pandemic scenario, suggest exploring stakeholders’ acts within a set of four rules - action rule, institutional rule, operations rule, steering rule - to assess the design of scenario branches. Results address the assessment of the effects of stakeholders’ acts over time, including the issues of sustainability of acts, of transgression, of incapacities to act, and of the challenge of the concept of scenario end-state.